Дзеркало тижня, Економічна правда, Новое время, Ліга, Цензор, Сегодня, Інтерфакс, УНІАН, Лівий берег, Подробности, 24 канал, Кореспондент, 112 та десятки інших новинних сайтів на початку серпня опублікували новину про те, що «трудова міграція негативно впливає на розвиток української економіки». Першим був сайт Обозреватель з публікацією від 3 серпня.
Новину одразу підхопили соціальні мережі – за добу Фейсбук-пост лише одного з користувачів набрав понад 10 тисяч поширень та більше, ніж 1400 коментарів.
Саме цей пост, у якому немає жодного лінка, а тільки звинувачення та гра на емоціях, привернув нашу увагу. Такий стиль подачі інформації – одна з головних ознак фейків і маніпуляцій.
Головний економічний ризик – відсутність прогресу у реформах
«По той бік новин» з’ясував, що насправді було у інфляційному звіті НБУ за липень 2018 року, на який посилаються усі ЗМІ як на джерело інформації. Спойлер – відбулася не просто маніпуляція фактами, а подвійна маніпуляція.
Цей звіт – документ на 59 сторінок, що викладений на сайті Національний банк України. Про трудову міграцію у ньому теж згадується, але лише у кількох абзацах.
До основних економічних ризиків НБУ відносить – увага! – не трудову міграцію, а:
👉 відсутність прогресу у проведенні структурних реформ,
👉виконання зобов’язань перед МВФ,
👉виплати по державному боргу,
👉приведення ціни на газ до рівня імпортної,
👉ситуацію на Сході України,
👉зниження іноземних інвестицій.
І тільки після усіх цих причин НБУ називає трудову міграцію як один із аспектів.
В той же час, НБУ звертає увагу на позитивні впливи трудової міграції:
✅зменшення рівня безробіття в Україні,
✅підвищення споживчого попиту,
✅приток іноземної валюти в Україну.
«Теза про міграцію – вирвана з контексту та маніпулятивна»
Твердження, яке розповсюдили ЗМІ – вирване з контексту звіту НБУ. Це підтверджує і Ганна Вахітова, дослідниця міграційних процесів та викладачка Kyiv School of Economics.
За її словами, новина, яку подали ЗМІ, «перевернула усе з ніг на голову».
«Твердження про те, що трудова міграція негативно впливає на економічний розвиток України є маніпулятивним, оскільки саме різниця в зарплатах з іншими країнами та нестабільність економіки спонукають людей мігрувати, тому що в економіці є фактори, які виштовхують людей за кордон».
«Міграція стимулює споживчий попит в Україні за рахунок переказів мігрантів. З іншого боку – вона може викликати негативні наслідки. Який з цих ефектів переможе – навіть Нацбанк не передбачить», – додає вона.
Її думку розділяє також Олексій Позняк, завідувач Відділу міграційних досліджень НАН України.
«В жодному разі не можна сказати, що трудова міграція має тільки негативний вплив. З одного боку – це збільшення рівня оплати праці в Україні, зменшення безробіття; з іншого – виїзд активного населення».
Достовірність і об’єктивність? Ні, не чули
Одностайність та синхронність, з якою десятки ЗМІ наголосили на тому, що трудова міграція гальмує економічний розвиток, дивує та викликає підозри щодо дотримання стандарту об’єктивної подачі інформації. Про точність і повноту теж забули, зосередившись на єдиному акценті і єдиному його трактуванні – практично ніхто з авторів новин на цю тему не залучив експертів до роз’яснення тез цього звіту.
До речі, інфляційні звіти НБУ публікує регулярно (попередній був у квітні), але медіа ними не дуже цікавилися, а тут такий ажіотаж.
Що ж, вибори наближаються, слідкуймо за заголовками, запасаймося критичним мисленням і здоровою недовірою.
Матеріал підготовано в рамках інформаційної кампанії “По той бік новин”, спрямованої на боротьбу з маніпуляцією, дезінформацією та фейками в українському інформаційному просторі.
Ця кампанія – один з підкомпонентів проекту «re:start democratic discourse», який ГО “Інститут розвитку регіональної преси” реалізовує в партнерстві з Європейським центром свободи преси та ЗМІ (ECPMF), м. Лейпциг, за підтримки Міністерства закордонних справ Німеччини.
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